USPSTF breast screening guidelines increase mortality rate

Wednesday, November 29 | 3:00 p.m.-3:10 p.m. | SSM01-01 | Room E451A

A new model-based study projects a higher breast cancer mortality rate for unscreened women ages 40 to 49 who follow the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) breast cancer screening guidelines, which recommend biennial screening starting at age 50.

Dr. Akshay Goel of Columbia University Medical Center and colleagues used a Monte Carlo simulation model to assess the implications of the USPSTF's screening guidelines for this population of women, simulating a cohort of 20 million based on 2017 U.S. census data. The researchers randomized patients into two groups: those who had annual screening starting at age 40, and those who had annual screening starting at age 50.

In the first group, there were 29,342 deaths from breast cancer, fewer than in the second group, which had 36,222 deaths from the disease.

"The USPSTF guidelines result in increased mortality for nonscreened patients between ages 40-49," the group concluded. "Further work is needed to help patients and clinicians understand new guideline implications" for this age group.