U.S. health spending is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.3% in the next 10 years, reaching $4.6 trillion in 2019, according to a report from the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published online September 9 in Health Affairs.
The report, "National Health Spending Projections: The Estimated Impact of Reform Through 2019," found that total national health spending is estimated to have grown 5.8% in 2009 and to have reached $2.5 trillion. This year, spending is expected to grow by 5.1% to reach $2.6 trillion. In 2011, national health spending is projected to grow a bit more slowly, at 4.2%, or $2.7 trillion.
By 2019, the U.S. will spend an estimated 19.6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on healthcare, compared to 17.5% in 2010.
CMS attributes this pattern of growth to modifications in the Medicare sustainable growth rate (SGR) system, which was affected by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, the agency said.
Health spending will increase by 9.2% in 2014, when health coverage will be expanded to currently uninsured Americans. CMS estimates that 93% of Americans will be insured by 2019, with more than half of these people gaining coverage through Medicaid.
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